Strategy & Portfolio
Regression to the Mean
The statistical tendency for extreme performance (very high or very low) to move toward average over time.
In venture capital, regression to the mean explains why top-performing funds often underperform in subsequent vintages, and why startups with explosive early growth sometimes slow down. Extreme outcomes are partly driven by luck, which doesn't persist.
In Practice
The fund's Fund I returned 8x, making it top-decile. Fund II returned 2.1x. The partners hadn't lost their skill — they just experienced regression to the mean as luck normalized.
Why It Matters
Regression to the mean is why LPs diversify across managers and vintages. Chasing last year's top performer is a recipe for disappointing returns.
VC Beast Take
Regression to the mean is the market's way of reminding VCs that they're not as smart as their best fund suggested, and not as dumb as their worst one implied.
Related Concepts
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