Portfolio Management

Startup Failure Rate Model

Set realistic outcome assumptions by stage and see the expected portfolio return.

Stage Preset

Number of deals

Avg check size

Outcome Distribution (100% total)

Write-offs (%)

Small returns (%)

Return multiple

Good returns (%)

Return multiple

Great returns (%)

Return multiple

Outstanding (%)

Return multiple

Expected Outcomes

Expected portfolio MOIC

6.80×

$68.0M on $10.0M deployed · 40% success rate

Write-offs (0×)$0

12 companies (60%)0.00× contribution

Small returns (1.5×)$3.0M

4 companies (18%)0.30× contribution

Good returns (5×)$5.0M

2 companies (12%)0.50× contribution

Great returns (20×)$10.0M

1 companies (7%)1.00× contribution

Outstanding (100×)$50.0M

1 companies (3%)5.00× contribution

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VC Beast. “Startup Failure Rate Model.” VC Beast, https://vcbeast.com/tools/investors/startup-failure-rate-model.

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